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fusion/scripts/lib/lifecycle-column-census-baseline.json
gsxdsm cef1b08af3 U12: the census baseline follows the count down — and goes in the merge gate (#2661) 
Coordinator item 2. The census had the right mechanism and no teeth.

## The gap

`--strict` already fails on a rise **and** on an unrecorded drop — that
logic was correct. But nothing blocking ran it, so the baseline drifted
to **854 while the tree held 787**. That is **67 guards of regression
that would have merged silently**: a high-water mark wearing a ratchet's
name.

This is the same shape as the ceilings I tightened in #2647, one level
up. Worth saying plainly: I fixed the vitest ratchet's slack by hand and
did not check whether the *authoritative* instrument had the same
problem. It did, and by a much larger margin.

## Three changes

1. **`--strict` runs in `test:gate`.** The baseline cannot go stale
again without a red gate.
2. **Baseline re-recorded: 854 → 785** across 14 files (`triage` 38 →
9).
3. The single RISE is resolved honestly rather than absorbed.

## The +3 investigation

One file rose: `register-task-workflow-routes.ts` **22 → 23**. #2621
replaced one `task.column === "todo"` with `task.column === "triage" ||
task.column === "todo"` — a net **+1** that also reintroduced a `triage`
literal, while the PR title reported *"count 0 → 0"*.

Not an accusation. There was no gate for the author to check against,
and a hand-counted claim in a PR title is exactly the thing that goes
wrong without one. Change 1 is the fix.

**The literal is justified and stays**, marked `DELIBERATE-LITERAL`
rather than converted. It is the **v1-IR arm**: a v1 workflow yields no
role assignments, so `resolveLifecycleColumns` returns nothing and the
legacy pre-implementation ids are the only pre-WIP signal available. The
`else` branch directly below already resolves intake/hold for every v2
workflow. Converting this arm would not finish anything — it would
delete the only answer v1 boards have and admit
`in-progress`/`in-review` cards into a rebound that clears worktree,
branch and retry counters, which is the regression #2621 was fixing.

## Both directions proven

| direction | probe | result |
|---|---|---|
| rise | add `t.column === 'in-review'` | `live-agent-count.ts: 6 -> 7`,
exit 1 |
| drop | convert one guard | `self-healing.ts: allows 111, tree has
110`, exit 1 |

**The drop probe took three attempts to test honestly, and the first two
"passed" while proving nothing:**

1. I renamed a receiver (`task.column` → `Probe`) — the classifier is
**fail-closed**, so an unknown receiver is still counted and the number
never moved.
2. I targeted a site in `hold-release.ts` that carries a
`DELIBERATE-LITERAL` marker — not counted as a column guard at all, so
removing it changed nothing.

Only removing a counted comparison outright moved the number. Both false
negatives came from me assuming the probe worked because the command
exited the way I expected.

## On auto-rewrite vs fail-and-instruct

You offered either. The script already does **fail-and-instruct**, with
`--update-baseline` as the explicit re-record, and I kept it that way
rather than making the test rewrite the baseline during a run.

Reason: a silent downward rewrite means a conversion PR's own diff never
shows the number moving, so "census before/after in the PR body" becomes
unverifiable — the reviewer would have to re-derive it. Failing with the
new number in the message puts it in the diff where a human sees it, and
it costs one command.

## Verification

`pnpm lint` clean. `pnpm test:gate` green with the census in it — `every
file matches its baseline exactly` (10 / 132 / 487 / 71).

Note for the fleet launch: with `--strict` gating, **every** conversion
PR must now re-record the baseline in the same PR. That is the intended
cost, and it makes the fleet's "baseline must shrink by exactly the
converted count" rule mechanically enforced instead of a review
instruction.

---------

Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-30 00:47:31 -07:00

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}
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