diff --git a/apps/web/src/app/page.tsx b/apps/web/src/app/page.tsx
index d32a9b3..cbb5aba 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/app/page.tsx
+++ b/apps/web/src/app/page.tsx
@@ -50,15 +50,15 @@ export default async function Home() {
       {/* At-a-glance health */}
       <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3 md:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6">
         <Kpi
-          label="Sase 24h success"
-          value={`${(health.successRate24h * 100).toFixed(1)}%`}
-          hint={`${health.total24h.toLocaleString("tr-TR")} sorgu`}
-          delta={health.successDeltaPp}
+          label="Sase 24h decode health"
+          value={`${(health.decodeHealth24h * 100).toFixed(1)}%`}
+          hint={`${health.total24h.toLocaleString("tr-TR")} sorgu · ham ${(health.successRate24h * 100).toFixed(0)}% · ${health.coverageGapCount24h} katalog-boşluğu`}
+          delta={health.decodeHealthDeltaPp}
           deltaUnit="pp"
           tone={
-            health.successRate24h >= 0.9
+            health.decodeHealth24h >= 0.9
               ? "ok"
-              : health.successRate24h >= 0.75
+              : health.decodeHealth24h >= 0.75
                 ? "warn"
                 : "bad"
           }
diff --git a/apps/web/src/lib/sase/daily-overview.ts b/apps/web/src/lib/sase/daily-overview.ts
index e05e6ec..451c074 100644
--- a/apps/web/src/lib/sase/daily-overview.ts
+++ b/apps/web/src/lib/sase/daily-overview.ts
@@ -3,13 +3,24 @@ import { saseDb } from "@/lib/db-sase";
 import { listSaseDeploys, analyzeDeployRegressions } from "./deploy-timeline";
 
 // ─── Sase 24h snapshot (current vs prior 24h) ────────────────────────────
+// Raw success/total is dominated by coverage gaps (no-catalog / unknown VIN)
+// and retry bursts — 2026-07-08: 4 Tofaş-Fiat VINs retried 5-17× each dragged
+// the raw 24h rate to 48.5% on a pipeline with ZERO real failures. Decode
+// health (succeeded / (succeeded + real infra failures), same partition as
+// getOperationalHealth) is the headline; raw stays for context.
 export type SaseHealthSnapshot = {
   total24h: number;
-  successRate24h: number;
+  successRate24h: number; // raw succeeded/total — context only
+  decodable24h: number; // succeeded + real failures (coverage gaps excluded)
+  decodeHealth24h: number; // succeeded / decodable — the headline metric
+  coverageGapCount24h: number; // no-catalog + unknown rows
   totalPrior24h: number;
   successRatePrior24h: number;
+  decodablePrior24h: number;
+  decodeHealthPrior24h: number;
   volumeDeltaPct: number; // null-safe: 0 if prior is 0
-  successDeltaPp: number;
+  successDeltaPp: number; // raw delta — context only
+  decodeHealthDeltaPp: number;
 };
 
 export async function getSaseHealthSnapshot(): Promise<SaseHealthSnapshot> {
@@ -21,41 +32,74 @@ export async function getSaseHealthSnapshot(): Promise<SaseHealthSnapshot> {
     Array<{
       cur_total: bigint;
       cur_succ: bigint;
+      cur_real_failed: bigint;
       prior_total: bigint;
       prior_succ: bigint;
+      prior_real_failed: bigint;
     }>
   >`
+    WITH q AS (
+      SELECT created_at, success,
+        -- real infra failure = failed AND not a coverage gap (same predicate
+        -- family as getOperationalHealth / vin-anomaly windowStats)
+        (success = false AND NOT (
+          error_message ILIKE 'no catalog%'
+          OR (timings->>'identified_no_catalog') = '1'
+          OR error_message ILIKE '%unknown vin%'
+          OR error_message ILIKE '%tanınamad%'
+          OR error_message ILIKE '%destekl%'
+          OR (timings->>'result_kind') = 'unknown'
+        )) AS is_real_failure
+      FROM query_logs
+      WHERE created_at >= ${start48}
+    )
     SELECT
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at >= ${start24}) AS cur_total,
       count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at >= ${start24} AND success = true) AS cur_succ,
-      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at >= ${start48} AND created_at < ${start24}) AS prior_total,
-      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at >= ${start48} AND created_at < ${start24} AND success = true) AS prior_succ
-    FROM query_logs
-    WHERE created_at >= ${start48}
+      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at >= ${start24} AND is_real_failure) AS cur_real_failed,
+      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at < ${start24}) AS prior_total,
+      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at < ${start24} AND success = true) AS prior_succ,
+      count(*) FILTER (WHERE created_at < ${start24} AND is_real_failure) AS prior_real_failed
+    FROM q
   `;
 
   const r = rows[0] ?? {
     cur_total: 0n,
     cur_succ: 0n,
+    cur_real_failed: 0n,
     prior_total: 0n,
     prior_succ: 0n,
+    prior_real_failed: 0n,
   };
   const curTotal = Number(r.cur_total);
   const curSucc = Number(r.cur_succ);
+  const curRealFailed = Number(r.cur_real_failed);
   const priorTotal = Number(r.prior_total);
   const priorSucc = Number(r.prior_succ);
+  const priorRealFailed = Number(r.prior_real_failed);
 
   const curRate = curTotal > 0 ? curSucc / curTotal : 0;
   const priorRate = priorTotal > 0 ? priorSucc / priorTotal : 0;
+  const curDecodable = curSucc + curRealFailed;
+  const priorDecodable = priorSucc + priorRealFailed;
+  // Empty window = nothing broken; default healthy so a quiet day isn't a red KPI.
+  const curHealth = curDecodable > 0 ? curSucc / curDecodable : 1;
+  const priorHealth = priorDecodable > 0 ? priorSucc / priorDecodable : 1;
 
   return {
     total24h: curTotal,
     successRate24h: curRate,
+    decodable24h: curDecodable,
+    decodeHealth24h: curHealth,
+    coverageGapCount24h: curTotal - curSucc - curRealFailed,
     totalPrior24h: priorTotal,
     successRatePrior24h: priorRate,
+    decodablePrior24h: priorDecodable,
+    decodeHealthPrior24h: priorHealth,
     volumeDeltaPct:
       priorTotal > 0 ? (curTotal - priorTotal) / priorTotal : 0,
     successDeltaPp: (curRate - priorRate) * 100,
+    decodeHealthDeltaPp: (curHealth - priorHealth) * 100,
   };
 }
 
@@ -314,16 +358,17 @@ export function buildActionItems(input: {
     });
   }
 
-  // Big success rate drop (24h vs prior)
+  // Big decode-health drop (24h vs prior) — REAL failures only; a raw-rate
+  // drop from coverage-gap retry bursts is not an incident.
   if (
-    input.health.successDeltaPp <= -3 &&
-    input.health.total24h >= 20 &&
-    input.health.totalPrior24h >= 20
+    input.health.decodeHealthDeltaPp <= -3 &&
+    input.health.decodable24h >= 10 &&
+    input.health.decodablePrior24h >= 10
   ) {
     items.push({
       severity:
-        input.health.successDeltaPp <= -10 ? "critical" : "high",
-      text: `Sase success rate düşüşü: ${(input.health.successRatePrior24h * 100).toFixed(1)}% → ${(input.health.successRate24h * 100).toFixed(1)}% (${input.health.successDeltaPp.toFixed(1)}pp)`,
+        input.health.decodeHealthDeltaPp <= -10 ? "critical" : "high",
+      text: `Sase decode health düşüşü: ${(input.health.decodeHealthPrior24h * 100).toFixed(1)}% → ${(input.health.decodeHealth24h * 100).toFixed(1)}% (${input.health.decodeHealthDeltaPp.toFixed(1)}pp, gerçek hata · katalog-boşluğu hariç)`,
       href: "/projects/sase/vin-decode",
     });
   }