Night of 2026-06-11 one user retrying a catalogless Toyota VIN tripped
volume_spike + unknown_vin_spike, and ~2.5/window night baselines made
quiet windows fire volume_drop at -100%.
- volume_spike: require >=2 distinct users and >=5 distinct (user,vin)
lookups so same-VIN retries don't count as a spike
- unknown_vin_spike: require unknown failures from >=2 distinct users
- volume_drop: raise expected-per-window floor from 1 to 4
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>